Working Papers

Sonia Bhalotra, Rudi Rocha, and Rodrigo R. Soares

Abstract

We investigate universalization of access to health in Brazil. We find large reductions in maternal, foetal, neonatal and post-neonatal mortality, a reduction in fertility and, possibly on account of selection, no change in the quality of births. Using rich administrative data, we investigate changes in organization, access and outcomes, thereby illuminating the driving mechanisms. We find sharp increases in coverage of primary health facilities with GPs and outreach workers and, in line with this, increases in outpatient procedures,…

Jan Hanousek, Anastasiya Shamshur, Jan Svejnar, and Jiri Tresl

Abstract

Using a panel data set of 148,286 firm-year observations related to 41,497 privately owned firms in thirteen European countries between 2001 to 2013, we provide the first large-scale study of the effect of uncertainty about corruption (need to make unofficial payments to public officials) on corporate investments. With a dataset of manager interviews and a dataset of firms’ financial and accounting statements, we find that higher corruption uncertainty is associated with lower corporate investments in medium-size…

Jonas Hjort, Diana Moreira, Gautam Rao, and Juan Francisco Santini

Abstract

This paper investigates if research findings change political leaders’ beliefs and cause policy change. Collaborating with the National Confederation of Municipalities in Brazil, we work with 2,150 municipalities and the mayors who control their policies. We use experiments to measure mayors’ demand for research information and their response to learning research findings. In one experiment, we find that mayors and other municipal officials are willing to pay to learn the results of impact evaluations, and update…

Chrisopher Hansman, Jonas Hjort, Gianmarco Leon

Abstract

Regulations that constrain firms' externalities in one dimension can distort incentives and worsen externalities in other dimensions. In Peru's industrial fishing sector, the world's largest, fishing boats catch anchovy that plants along the coast convert into fishmeal. Matching administrative daily data on plant production, ground-level air quality data, hospital admissions records, and survey data on individual health outcomes, we first show that fishmeal production worsens adult and child health through air pollution emitted by plants…

Tommaso Porzio and Gabriella Santangelo 

Abstract

We show that the global schooling increase during the 20th century affected structural transformation by changing the supply of agricultural labor. We develop an analytical model of frictional labor reallocation out of agriculture to infer changes in birth-cohort characteristics from observed data on agricultural employment. Bringing the model to microdata from 49 countries, we find that the increase in schooling was accompanied by a large shift in the labor force’s comparative advantage away from agriculture. We provide empirical evidence…

Anja Tolonen

Abstract

Does industrial development change gender norms? This is the first paper to causally explore the local effects of a continent-wide exogenous expansion of a modern industry on gender norms. The identification strategy relies on plausibly exogenous temporal and spatial variation in gold mining in Africa. The establishment of an industrial-scale mine changes local gender norms: justification of domestic violence decreases by 19%, women have better access to healthcare, and are 31% more likely to work in the service sector. The effects happen…

Guilherme Hirata and Rodrigo R. Soares

Abstract

According to Becker’s (1957) theory of taste-based employer discrimination, pure economic rents are necessary for discrimination to be observed in the labor market. Increased competition and reduced rents in the market for final goods should therefore lead to reduced labor market discrimination. We look at the natural experiment represented by the Brazilian trade liberalization from the early 1990s to study the effect of increased competition in the market for final goods on racial discrimination in the labor market. Changes in tariffs and…

Daron Acemoglu, Suresh Naidu, Pascual Restrepo, James A. Robinson

Abstract

We provide evidence that democracy has a significant and robust positive effect on GDP. Our empirical strategy relies on a dichotomous measure of democracy coded from several sources to reduce measurement error and controls for country fixed effects and the rich dynamics of GDP, which otherwise confound the effect of democracy on economic growth. Our baseline results use a linear model for GDP dynamics estimated using either a standard within estimator or various different Generalized Method of Moments estimators,…

Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Cyrus Samii

Abstract

We study issues related to external validity for treatment effects using over 100 replications of the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment on the effects of sibling sex composition on fertility and labor supply. The replications are based on census data from around the world going back to 1960. We decompose sources of error in predicting treatment effects in external contexts in terms of macro and micro sources of variation. In our empirical setting, we find that macro covariates dominate over micro covariates for…

Douglas Almond, Janet Currie, Valentina Duque

Abstract

That prenatal events can have life-long consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, research on the Fetal Origins Hypothesis is flourishing and has expanded to include the early childhood (postnatal) environment. Why does this literature have a “second act?” We summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since our 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life. One major finding is that relatively…

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Debora Revoltella, Jan Svejnar, and Christoph Weiss

Abstract

Many barriers keep resources from flowing to the most efficient firms in the European Union, with negative consequences for macroeconomic performance. Although a key objective of the EU has been to improve the allocation of resources across member countries, the dispersion of productivity among firms remains relatively large. Using data from a new survey of firms in all 28 EU countries, this column argues that reducing differences in the business environment across countries and industries could increase EU…

Paul Lagunes and Oscar Pocasangre M.

Abstract

Governments worldwide have implemented Freedom of Information Acts (FOIAs) in an effort to enhance transparency, but there is little evidence that FOIAs actually help secure information for citizens. We probed Mexico’s FOIA system by sending identical information requests to government entities in 2007, 2013, and 2015. Requests were submitted on behalf of a male citizen with a common name. In 2007, we also submitted information requests to a comparable set of entities on behalf of a male citizen who signaled clout. We show that entities are…